More and more research suggests that the past return of one firm’s stock can predict the stock returns of other, connected firms—with momentous implications for firm networks and investors. “Such cross-stock return momentum is found among stocks connected by the same industry, supply chain, and geographic location,” explain Jialin Yu of HKUST and a colleague ... Read More

A conventional theory about US Treasury bonds is that when there is uncertainty about inflation, the yield curve should get steeper because investors demand a higher premium for the risk of holding long-term bonds, as opposed to less vulnerable short-term ones. However, recent evidence suggests this yield curve effect may not be happening and this has now ... Read More

Analysts and investors may agree to disagree on certain portfolio picks, but the nature of that disagreement and its interplay with the portfolio could, in itself, have implications for returns and asset prices. Previous research has already shown that greater disagreement is associated with higher prices and lower subsequent returns. Professor Jialin Yu ... Read More

History is scattered with spectacular asset price bubbles, from the Dutch tulip bubble of the 1600s to the Internet bubble of the late 1990s. These bubbles have been studied in minute detail to understand how and why their price came to exceed their fundamental asset value, but the studies have been disadvantaged by incomplete information and hindsight. What ... Read More