The movie industry is characterized by a high seasonality in viewer demand. In the US, the majority of revenues are concentrated around major public holidays in summer and winter, and so movie studios tend to time major releases for these periods. New research, however, suggests an additional factor could be useful in timing releases – the temperature outdoors.

Jiewen Hong and Yacheng Sun show that people’s preferences for romance movies increases when they feel cold. This is demonstrated in controlled laboratory experiments as well as in an analysis of a data set from an online movie rental company. The authors argue these patterns are the result of a process in which physical feelings trigger psychological feelings, which in turn guide consumer preferences.

“Since humans have a basic need to keep warm, the experience of physical coldness should activate a desire for warmth and this should manifest itself as a greater need for psychological warmth” because the two are associated, they said. Romance movies are also closely associated with psychological warmth, hence the idea that people would have a heightened preference for them when they are physically cold.

Several experiments supported this idea. Participants were made to feel cold or warm, either by drinking a hot or cold drink or being in a room where the temperature was manipulated, then they were asked about their movie preferences. They could choose from romance, action, comedy and thriller movies but in each case, the cold condition increased the preference for romance movies but not for other genres. Moreover, the participants were willing to pay more money to see a romance movie if they were in the cold condition.

The effect could not be accounted for by either mood or gender differences. However, when the effect of being physically cold was made salient to participants, the preference for romance movies disappeared. This was done, very simply, by asking participants if they felt warm or cold. Those asked before completing the movie questions did not show greater preference for romance movies, unlike those who were asked afterwards.

To show that these laboratory findings also occur in the market place, the authors analyzed a set of movie rental data from an online DVD rental company. They matched customers’ detailed rental records spanning three years with historical temperature information and found that, after controlling for customer’s own movie genre preference, there was a greater likelihood for them to rent romance movies when outside temperature was lower; this pattern was not observed for other genres.

“The effect of physical coldness on a heightened need for psychological warmth may also be manifested as a greater desire for other products associated with psychological warmth,” said the authors – a point they demonstrated in a separate study that found greater preference for romance novels under cold conditions.

The authors also spoke directly to the impacts of their findings for movie studios, suggesting there may be opportunities between the peak winter and summer holidays to capitalize on consumer demand.

“Our findings suggest movie studios might be better off releasing romance movies in winter when temperatures are low,” they said, taking into account other factors that aim to maximize the total revenue from all sources, such as distribution, DVD sales, etcetera.